The Black Swan

04Feb09

I am not quite a fan of philosophy book but recently an old friend of mine suggests that I, being all-passionate in all aspects of life, to concentrate my braincells on philosophy. Unfortunately, the book does not entertain my braincells well as everytime I open the book, there is a soothing beautiful voice that will lull myself to sleep. People who suffer from insomnia can start reading this book as it is far more effective than sleeping pills.

The Black Swan

The author begins his book by explaining what the Black Swan is. The term Black Swan is actually derived from a general belief that all swans are white. It is a form of metaphorical term that something is not in existence. People in the olden age had an unassailable belief that ‘all swans were white’ as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. So when the sighting of the first black swan takes place after the discovery of Australia, the ornithologists’ (people who concerned with the colouring of birds) jaws dropped.

That illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. A general statement that derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans can be invalidated by one single observation. Just one single observation. That is what you need.

So what the author trying to say is that a series of corroborative facts is not necessarily evidence. Seeing white swans does not confirm the non-existence of black swans.

For example, If I see someone kills, then i can be practically certain that he is a criminal. If I don’t see him kill, I cannot be certain that he is innocent (absence of observation). Another example is cancer detection: the finding of a single malignant tumor proves that you have cancer, but the absence of such a finding cannot allow you to say with certainty that you are cancer-free.

The author believes that it is misleading to build a general rule from observed facts. He does not believe in the experts’ so called ‘tools’ to predict and measure risks.

The Black Swan phenomena in real life

The effect of the Black Swan has been increasing ever since our world started to get more complicated. There are a few examples of Black Swans that the author has pointed out in his book.

• The rise of Islamic fundamentalism
• The spread of the internet
• The rise of Hitler
• September 11 2001
• US subprime crisis

There are many more examples of Black Swans. Take Malaysia for example.

• 13 May 1969
• 1997 Asean Economic Crisis
• General Election 8 March 2008

All these are Black Swans dynamics.

I intend to write more on this but philosophy is just……………ZzzzZzzzzZZzzZZ. Goodnight.

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